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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-02-05T21:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-02-05T21:30Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-02-11T15:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-02-08T21:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-02-06T04:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 600
Longitude (deg): W05
Latitude (deg): S10
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: Low confidence due to difficult analysis.
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 119.90 hour(s)
Difference: 66.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-02-06T16:00Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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